Inkling had MSFT/YAHOO acquisition at about 30%

Updated: this market is still open since there was no actual announcement.

Just closed out the market on this on Inkling. The probability of Microsoft announcing its intention to buy Yahoo this year was trading at around 30% before today. (That's the total price for three separate quarter-by-quarter stocks).

So the market didn't nail the prediction, but it was higher than a lot of people thought the chances were. Inkling cofounder Adam Siegel said (podcast) that "sounds a little high". I personally thought it was 50/50, which is why I launched the market.

Time to go look and see if they have any other M&A predictions over there.